ASEAN Centrality in Crisis Explained: Challenges, Significance, and India’s Role in the Indo-Pacific

Importance of ASEAN Centrality, US–China Rivalry, Myanmar Crisis, RCEP, TAC, and Way Forward for Southeast Asia.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is facing one of its toughest challenges.

Its central role in the Indo-Pacific is under growing strain from US–China rivalry, trade tensions, and new security groupings.

At the same time, ASEAN is struggling with internal divisions, a credibility crisis over Myanmar, and weak institutional capacity.

This situation has triggered debates on whether ASEAN can still remain the driving force of regional cooperation, or whether new minilateral groups like QUAD and AUKUS will overshadow it.

Understanding ASEAN centrality is crucial, as its decline could weaken Southeast Asia’s stability, trade, and diplomacy.

About ASEAN

1. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, through the ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration).

2. Its aims are to accelerate economic and cultural progress, promote peace and stability, strengthen the rule of law, and foster collaboration in education, trade, agriculture, and industry.

3. The ASEAN Secretariat is located in Jakarta, Indonesia.

4. ASEAN has 10 member states. The founding members are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

   • Other 5 members of ASEAN: Brunei Darussalam (1984), Vietnam (1995), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos) (1997), Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (1999).

5. The ASEAN Summit is the highest decision-making body, comprising the Heads of State or Government.

6. Article 1.15 of the ASEAN Charter (2007) stresses centrality. It underlines ASEAN’s role as the driving force in external relations.

Importance of ASEAN Centrality

ASEAN centrality means ASEAN remains at the core of regional cooperation, guiding relations with external powers. It is important in three major ways:

1. Security and Stability

   • ASEAN provides platforms for dialogue on defence and maritime security.

   • Examples include the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus).

   • These allow both ASEAN and external powers to discuss sensitive issues peacefully.

     
     

2. Economic Integration

   • ASEAN led the creation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

   • RCEP is the world’s largest trade bloc, covering Asia-Pacific economies.

   • It strengthens trade and supply chains across the region.

     
     

3. Norm-Building

   • The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) promotes peaceful dispute settlement and non-interference.

   • Initially for Southeast Asia, it now includes major powers like the United States (US), China, and Russia.

Thus, ASEAN acts as an anchor of stability, trade, and diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific.

Challenges to ASEAN Centrality

ASEAN centrality is under growing strain.

The first challenge is the US-China Cold War.

• This rivalry is dividing the Indo-Pacific into blocs, tearing ASEAN unity.

• This rivalry reduces the relevance of ASEAN-led platforms like the East Asia Summit (EAS) and ARF.

• The risk of military conflict between the two superpowers further weakens ASEAN.

• ASEAN, bound by the “ASEAN Way”—a principle of consensus and non-confrontation—struggles to respond to security crises.

The second challenge is trade tensions.

• US President Donald Trump’s tariffs destabilised global trade systems. ASEAN economies are highly dependent on open trade.

• The tariffs also pitted members against each other. Lack of a common ASEAN position weakened centrality.

The third challenge is weakening regional architecture.

• ASEAN-led formats like EAS and ARF have lost strength.

• New minilateral arrangements like QUAD and AUKUS compete with ASEAN frameworks.

• Trump-era transactional policies created uncertainty even among US allies.

Internal divisions also weaken ASEAN.

• Vietnam demands a tough stance on China.

• Cambodia and Laos are dependent on Chinese loans.

• This prevents unity on major issues.

ASEAN also faces a credibility crisis. On the Myanmar crisis, its "Five-Point Consensus" has failed.

1. Ending violence,

2. Dialogue among all parties,

3. Appointment of a special envoy,

4. Humanitarian assistance, and

5. Envoy’s visit to Myanmar.

But Myanmar’s military junta ignored these measures, and ASEAN could not enforce them. This allowed external powers to interfere in the Indo-Pacific.

Weak institutional capacity is another concern.

• The ASEAN Secretariat has limited resources.

• This restricts ambitious initiatives and quick crisis response.

Wider Geopolitical Pressures

• The post–Cold War order shaped ASEAN’s current framework.

• That order was marked by stability, globalisation, and regional integration. Now, it is breaking down.

• Growing instability challenges ASEAN’s ability to stay central.

• If ASEAN loses centrality, its importance will decline.This would have painful consequences for Southeast Asia.

Way Forward for ASEAN

ASEAN must reform and adapt.

1. Strengthen Institutions

   • Greater internal consolidation.

   • Stronger crisis management and decision-making.

   • More resources for the Secretariat.

   • Willingness to engage with difficult security issues.

     Plans like ASEAN Community Vision 2045, the ASEAN Political-Security Community Strategic Plan, and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Strategic Plan 2026–2030 are steps forward.

     
     

2. Cooperate with Like-Minded Partners

   • The European Union (EU) seeks Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN members and is expanding in the Indo-Pacific.

   • Australia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies, and even BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) offer potential partnerships.

     
     

3. Closer Partnership with India

   • India is a rising Indo-Pacific power with strategic autonomy.

   • It shares ASEAN’s interests in trade, diversification, and stability.

   • Cooperation can also revive BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).

     
     

4. Upgrade Agreements

   • The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) and the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) remain ineffective.

   • They should be revised to include digital trade, environment, and deeper tariff cuts.

   • ASEAN should also consider upgrading RCEP and joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Role of India in Supporting ASEAN Centrality

India can play a balancing role in strengthening ASEAN centrality.

• Synchronise Initiatives: Align Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) with the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

• Enhance Cooperation: Focus on maritime security, disaster relief, and blue economy.

• Build Regional Linkages: Use Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), BIMSTEC, and the Indonesia–Malaysia–Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT).

• Trade Facilitation: Accelerate review of AITIGA for better trade flows.

• Tourism Cooperation: Implement the ASEAN–India Tourism Work Plan 2023–2027 to boost capacity-building and exchanges.

Conclusion

ASEAN has emerged as Southeast Asia’s premier organisation.Its centrality is a pillar of stability, trade, and diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific.. But today, great-power rivalry, trade wars, and new security groupings threaten this centrality. ASEAN must act boldly—strengthen institutions, deepen economic integration, and build new partnerships. India and ASEAN share converging interests in the Indo-Pacific. Together, they can reassert ASEAN’s central role and ensure Southeast Asia’s progress.

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