Kabul Water Crisis: Is Afghanistan’s Capital on the Verge of Running Dry by 2030?

Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan and home to over six million people, is facing a rapidly worsening water crisis that could render it the first major modern city to run out of water by 2030, according to a warning from nonprofit Mercy Corps. With a combination of climate change, unsustainable groundwater extraction, urban overpopulation, and governance failures, experts warn that the city is approaching an existential tipping point.

How Severe Is Kabul’s Groundwater Crisis?

Over the past decade, aquifer levels — layer of underground rock or sediment that holds water — have dropped by 25 to 30 metres (82 to 98 feet). The extraction of water from these underground sources has exceeded natural recharge by a staggering 44 million cubic metres (1,553 cubic feet) annually. This unsustainable trend means Kabul’s groundwater reserves could be entirely depleted by 2030, threatening the very survival of the city.

According to UNICEF, nearly half of Kabul’s borewells — deep wells drilled into aquifers and the primary source of drinking water — are already dry. Furthermore, up to 80% of groundwater is contaminated with high levels of sewage, arsenic, and salinity, making it unsafe for consumption.

What Factors Are Driving the Water Shortage in Kabul?

Experts identify several intersecting factors behind this mounting disaster:

1. Climate Change: Repeated droughts, early snowmelt, and decreased snowfall have reduced the availability of surface water and lowered the groundwater recharge rate — the natural process of water seeping into aquifers.

2. Population Explosion: Kabul's population has exploded from under one million in 2001 to over six million today, placing immense strain on already fragile water resources.

3. Poor Water Governance: Decades of conflict, corruption, and administrative dysfunction have left critical water infrastructure (pipelines, canals, dams) in disrepair. International sanctions imposed after the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 have further hindered development efforts.

4. Unregulated Over-extraction: There are about 310,000 drilled wells across Afghanistan, with an estimated 120,000 unregulated borewells in Kabul alone, according to Mercy Corps. The 2023 UN report found that 49% of borewells in Kabul are dry and others operate at only 60% efficiency.

Who Is Most Affected by Kabul’s Water Scarcity?

The crisis is hitting the poor hardest. While wealthier residents can afford to dig deeper boreholes, poorer families often rely on shallow wells or public water taps, which are drying up. As a result, residents — often children — spend hours each day searching for water instead of attending school. “Every evening, even late at night, I see young children with small cans in their hands looking for water,” said Abdulhadi Achakzai, director of Environmental Protection Trainings and Development Organization (EPTDO).

How Are Commercial Activities Worsening the Water Crisis in Kabul?

The problem is worsened by commercial exploitation. Over 500 beverage and mineral water companies operate in Kabul, extracting vast quantities of groundwater. One company alone — Alokozay, a popular Afghan soft drink manufacturer — draws approximately one billion litres (256 million gallons) per year, which equals 2.5 million litres (660,000 gallons) daily, according to Najibullah Sadid, a senior researcher with the Afghanistan Water and Environment Professionals Network.

In addition, over 400 hectares (9,884 acres) of greenhouses used to grow vegetables in Kabul consume an estimated 4 billion litres (1.05 billion gallons) of water annually.

What Role Does Climate Change Play in Kabul’s Water Crisis?

The city's natural water supply primarily comes from three rivers — the Kabul, Paghman, and Logar rivers — which rely on snow and glacier melt from the Hindu Kush mountains. But between October 2023 and January 2024, Afghanistan received only 45% to 60% of average precipitation during what is typically the peak winter season.

“Climate-related events like repeated droughts, early snowmelt, and reduced snowfall have diminished groundwater recharge opportunities,” explained water expert Assem Mayar, former lecturer at Kabul Polytechnic University. Additionally, higher air temperatures have increased evaporation rates, especially in agriculture, further aggravating water scarcity.

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How Have Sanctions and Conflict Affected Kabul’s Water Infrastructure?

Kabul's crisis is not solely the result of environmental changes — it is also deeply rooted in political instability and international sanctions. Since the Taliban takeover, major water infrastructure projects have either been frozen or abandoned:

• A German-funded water supply project, co-financed by the European Union, was designed to deliver 44 billion litres (11 billion gallons) of water annually from the Logar aquifers. Though two-thirds complete, it has been suspended since the fall of the Ghani government in 2021.

• Similarly, the Shah-toot Dam project on the Kabul River, which was part of an agreement between India and Afghanistan, has also stalled, despite its potential to supply clean water to thousands.

o   Shah-toot Dam, a proposed dam on the Kabul River intended to improve water availability in the city.

According to Mayar, “The crisis is already beyond the capacity of the current de facto authorities. In well-managed cities, such impacts are mitigated through robust water governance. Kabul lacks such capacity.”

What Solutions Could Help Solve Kabul’s Water Crisis?

Despite the grim outlook, experts suggest that strategic interventions could still alter Kabul’s fate:

1. Artificial Groundwater Recharge: This process involves directing rainwater or river water into the ground to replenish aquifers. Building check dams and water reservoirs can facilitate this.

   • Check Dam, a small dam built across a drainage ditch or channel to slow water flow and promote groundwater recharge.

2. Water Infrastructure Development: There is an urgent need to modernize and maintain existing pipelines, install new supply systems from nearby rivers (such as in Panjshir), and improve water delivery efficiency.

3. Rainwater Harvesting: Implementing citywide rainwater capture systems can reduce pressure on groundwater sources and improve climate resilience.

4. Sanction Relief and Donor Engagement: Mayar, Sadid, and Achakzai all emphasize that international cooperation is vital. Without lifting restrictions on humanitarian and infrastructure aid, the crisis will only deepen.

Is There Still Time to Prevent Kabul from Running Out of Water?

While the exact timeline remains uncertain, experts agree that “the end is near” if current trends continue. As Sadid metaphorically describes, “imagine the groundwater as a bowl with depleting water.” The growing gap between extraction and natural replenishment is now too large to ignore. Without immediate, coordinated, and well-funded interventions, Kabul could become the first major city in the world to run entirely out of water by 2030 — a dire warning for both Afghanistan and the global community.

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