State of World Population Report 2025

India’s demographic story is as vast and diverse as the country itself. From the days of rapid population growth in the mid-20th century to today’s complex fertility realities, the nation has journeyed through a wide spectrum of population dynamics—each shaped by policy, progress, and deep-rooted social structures.

This evolving narrative has found fresh global attention in the recently released State of World Population Report 2025, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The theme this year—"The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World"—offers a powerful message: the real challenge is not too many or too few people, but the fact that millions cannot meet their reproductive goals.

Why is it called UNFPA?

In 1969, the agency began operating as the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. The same year, the United Nations General Assembly declared, “Parents have the exclusive right to determine freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children.” In 1987, the name was changed to the United Nations Population Fund, but the original acronym remains the same.

To understand where India stands today, one must revisit the decades of transformation that brought us here. Following Independence, India experienced a population explosion, particularly during 1951 to 1981. This phase was marked by better healthcare and food availability, leading to sharp declines in mortality rates while birth rates remained high. The average annual growth rate during this period soared to 2.2%, prompting widespread concerns about overpopulation.

In demographic terms, this sudden increase is referred to as a population explosion—a sharp spike in the number of people within a short timeframe due to high birth rates and falling death rates.

However, the landscape today is dramatically different. India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime—has now dropped to 2.0, below the replacement-level fertility of 2.1. Replacement-level fertility is the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, accounting for child mortality and other losses.

This decline in fertility marks India’s transition into a stabilizing phase, but it has also introduced new complexities. What emerges is a striking duality: while most parts of India are witnessing below-replacement fertility, others still record significantly high rates. The SOWP 2025 report highlights this "high-fertility and low-fertility duality" as a defining feature of India’s current demographic reality.

For instance, 31 states and union territories now have fertility rates below 2.1. In developed and urban regions like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi, many couples—especially educated, middle-class women—are choosing to delay or skip childbirth altogether. This is often driven by financial burdens, professional aspirations, lack of reliable childcare, and work-life conflicts. On the other hand, states like Bihar (TFR 3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), and Uttar Pradesh (2.7) still report fertility rates well above replacement levels. Moreover, in seven states, the rural fertility rate remains higher than the national average, revealing persistent urban-rural disparities.

Such differences are shaped by varying access to healthcare, educational attainment, employment opportunities, and traditional gender norms—highlighting that fertility in India is not just a biological issue, but a social and economic one.

This brings us to the crux of the 2025 UNFPA report: the idea that fertility concerns must shift from crude numbers to the freedom to choose. Based on a global UNFPA–YouGov survey across 14 countries, including India, the report found that 36% of adult Indians have experienced unintended pregnancies, while 30% have not been able to have the number of children they desire. Another 23% reported facing both challenges—either having children they did not plan for or not having children they wished for.

Globally, one in five people now expect not to have the number of children they truly want. The reasons are strikingly consistent: economic instability, housing shortages, unaffordable childcare, and climate anxiety. Interestingly, many also cite the lack of a suitable partner as a barrier to starting a family.

In India, financial limitations emerge as the most common barrier. Nearly four in ten people say that they cannot afford to have more children. Job insecurity (21%), housing constraints (22%), and unreliable childcare (18%) further dissuade families from expanding. Health-related issues, such as poor general well-being (15%), infertility (13%), and limited access to pregnancy care (14%), also significantly impact reproductive choices.

These statistics point to a lack of reproductive agency—a concept central to this year’s SOWP report. Reproductive agency means a person’s ability to make free, informed, and supported decisions about whether and when to have children. When people are unable to exercise this right—due to poverty, lack of information, or social pressure—it results in unmet fertility desires, which the UNFPA rightly labels as the real fertility crisis.

Infertility, in particular, is a neglected crisis in India. While 27.5 million Indian couples are estimated to face infertility, the public healthcare system offers limited support. Most treatments remain prohibitively expensive and are concentrated in private, urban clinics. The report calls for including infertility services in public health insurance schemes, so that reproductive health isn't just about preventing pregnancy—but also about enabling it, when desired.

Amid these challenges, India stands at a critical demographic juncture. The country’s population in 2025 is estimated at 1.46 billion, with 68% falling into the working-age group of 15–64 years. This age composition presents a historic opportunity for economic acceleration, a phase known as the demographic dividend.

The demographic dividend refers to the economic benefit a country can enjoy when its dependency ratio—the proportion of non-working-age population (under 15 and over 64) to the working-age population—is low. With more people in the productive age group, and fewer dependents, a nation can invest more in growth, innovation, and development. But this dividend is not automatic. To reap its benefits, India must invest in education, skill development, job creation, and public health infrastructure.

To better understand these dynamics, one must also grasp some key demographic terms. For example, density of population—the number of persons per unit area—helps gauge pressure on resources. According to the 2011 Census, India’s population density stood at 382 persons per square kilometre, with Bihar recording the highest density at 1,106 persons per sq km, a sharp rise from 117 in 1951.

Other important terms include positive population growth, where the birth rate exceeds the death rate or net migration is positive, and negative population growth, where the reverse occurs. These indicators help policymakers plan for future infrastructure, urbanization, and service needs.

Similarly, the fertility rate, often confused with TFR, refers to the number of live births per 1,000 women in the reproductive age group (15–49 years) in a given year. TFR, on the other hand, is a projection of how many children a woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates remain constant.

As the 2025 UNFPA report rightly notes, the answer to India’s population questions lies not in controlling how many children people have, but in ensuring that they can freely choose when and how to build their families. Empowering individuals with reproductive agency, especially women, is the most effective and ethical way forward.

India, with its enormous diversity, is living through multiple demographic realities at once. Bridging these divides—with equity in education, healthcare, and opportunity—is essential not just for population stability, but for a just and inclusive future.

Post Read Question

Question 1

The total fertility rate in an economy is defined as: (UPSC CSE 2024)

a) The number of children born per 1000 people in the population in a year.

b) The number of children born to couple in their lifetime in a given population.

c) The birth rate minus death rate.

d) The average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age.

Answer (d)

Question 2

India is regarded as a country with “Demographic Dividend’’. This is due to– (UPSC CSE 2011)

a) Its high population in the age group below 15 years.

b) Its high population in the age group of 15-­64 years.

c) Its high population in the age group above 65 years.

d) Its high total population.

Answer (b)