Tuvalu and the World’s First Planned Migration: Climate Change Triggers Historic Relocation to Australia
- TPP
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
As rising sea levels threaten to submerge Tuvalu within 25 years, the Pacific island nation begins the world’s first climate migration agreement with Australia.
Tuvalu, a small island nation in Oceania made up of nine low-lying coral atolls and home to just over 11,000 residents, is facing an existential threat due to climate change. With an average elevation of just 2 meters (about 6.5 feet) above sea level and a maximum elevation of only 4.5 meters (15 feet), Tuvalu is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. The nation's precarious geography places it at serious risk from sea level rise, flooding, and storm surges—all of which are intensifying due to global warming.
According to a 2023 study by NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, sea levels around Tuvalu have already risen by 15 centimeters (6 inches) over the past 30 years. If this trend continues, much of Tuvalu’s land and critical infrastructure will be below high-tide level by 2050.
This rise in sea level also poses a threat to freshwater aquifers—underground layers of water-bearing rock—which are becoming increasingly saline due to seawater infiltration. Salinity intrusion undermines agriculture, forcing residents to raise their crops off the ground to avoid saltwater damage, as noted by Bateteba Aselu, a Tuvaluan PhD student in climate studies at the University of Melbourne.
In response to these rapidly worsening conditions, Tuvalu and Australia signed the historic "Falepili Union Treaty" in late 2023, which came into effect in 2024. This first-of-its-kind agreement provides for a climate migration visa program that will allow 280 Tuvaluan citizens each year to migrate to Australia starting in 2025. Under the treaty, Tuvaluans can live, work, and study in Australia with access to the same healthcare, education, housing, and employment rights as Australian citizens.
Importantly, the visa does not mandate permanent relocation; recipients can return home or travel back and forth if they choose.
The application period for the first ballot opened on June 16, 2025, and closed on July 18. Interest in the scheme was overwhelming—more than 3,125 people applied within the first four days, and by July 11, a total of 5,157 individuals had registered, according to Nikkei Asia.
By July 23, the number of registrations—including family members of primary applicants—had risen to 8,750, as confirmed by the Australian High Commission in Tuvalu. The first 280 recipients were selected by ballot on July 25, and they are expected to arrive in Australia by the end of 2025.
Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong emphasized that the migration pathway allows Tuvaluans to relocate "with dignity as climate impacts worsen." She also highlighted the deep trust between the two nations and the positive role Tuvaluans are expected to play in Australian society. Australian officials described the treaty as a “pathway for mobility with dignity”, recognizing the devastating impact climate change is having on Pacific communities.
Experts agree that this initiative sets a global precedent. Wesley Morgan of the University of New South Wales called it a "global first" where migration is explicitly tied to climate change and sea level rise. The program may inspire similar agreements with other at-risk island nations such as Kiribati, which face comparable threats.
While the annual migration cap is intended to avoid brain drain—the loss of skilled individuals that could damage Tuvalu's economy—the long-term demographic implications are significant. Jane McAdam, a professor at UNSW’s Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, pointed out that with current emigration rates, almost 4% of Tuvalu’s population could leave each year. Over a decade, up to 40% of the population may have emigrated if conditions do not improve and if many do not return.
This treaty is just one part of Tuvalu’s broader survival strategy. In 2022, the nation launched an ambitious plan to become the world’s first digital nation. This initiative includes 3D scanning its islands to digitally preserve their appearance and transitioning government functions into a virtual environment to maintain sovereignty and cultural identity. In parallel, constitutional reforms are being considered to redefine Tuvalu as a virtual state, a status already recognized by 25 countries, including Australia and New Zealand.
Tuvalu’s leaders are also seeking international action. At the Third UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France in June 2025, Tuvaluan Prime Minister Feleti Teo called for the creation of an international treaty on sea level rise to protect the legal rights of disappearing states, including maintaining maritime boundaries and statehood even if territory becomes uninhabitable. He also voiced Tuvalu’s support for a Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty, demanding a rapid, fair, and irreversible phase-out of fossil fuels globally.
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Meanwhile, sea level rise is not confined to Tuvalu or the Pacific. NASA data show that global sea levels have been rising faster than expected, with the rate doubling since 1993, contributing to a 10-centimeter (4 inches) increase over that period. Some areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico, have seen even more dramatic changes, with sea levels rising at three times the global average, according to a 2023 study in Nature.
Albert van Dijk, a professor at the Australian National University, warned that climate change is disrupting the planet’s entire water system, with increasing extreme weather events such as historic droughts and catastrophic floods. He noted, “Water is our most vital resource, and its extreme behavior represents one of the greatest threats today.”
Tuvalu’s situation may be the first large-scale climate-induced migration effort of a sovereign nation, but it likely won't be the last. As global sea levels continue to rise and climate impacts intensify, more countries will face similar existential choices—whether to adapt, digitize, or relocate.
Tuvalu Country brief
Tuvalu, formerly known as the Ellice Islands, is a remote island nation located midway between Hawaii and Australia in the South Pacific Ocean. It comprises nine islands—including four reef islands and five coral atolls—and is home to an estimated 11,204 people, with about half of the population living on Funafuti, the country’s capital atoll.
An atoll is a ring-shaped coral reef, island, or series of islets that surrounds a central lagoon, either partially or completely. Atolls typically form from the growth of coral reefs around the rim of a submerged volcanic island.
Tuvalu is a constitutional monarchy and became independent from the United Kingdom in October 1978. It maintains a 16-member unicameral parliament, elected every four years. The Prime Minister, who is elected by a majority of parliament members, serves as the head of government, supported by several ministers. Tuvalu’s political landscape is unique: it has no formal political parties, and members of parliament typically align with informal groupings and maintain close ties to their island constituencies.
Tuvalu held its general election on 26 January 2024, with final results announced on 27 January. Hon. Prime Minister Feleti Teo OBE announced the formation of the new government on 28 February 2024. His Majesty King Charles III is Tuvalu’s Head of State, represented in the country by Governor General Reverend Tofiga Vaevalu Falani.
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