Why Aam Aadmi Party Quits I.N.D.I. Alliance

AAP Formally Quits INDIA Bloc | Image: PTI

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has formally announced its decision to quit the Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance, signaling a shift in its political strategy ahead of the upcoming 2024 General Elections.

AAP leader Sanjay Singh stated that the alliance was formed solely for the purpose of contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and following that, the party had decided to go solo in subsequent elections. This decision comes after a series of setbacks, including a disappointing performance in Delhi’s recent Assembly elections, where AAP failed to secure even key constituencies, including those represented by its leaders, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia.

Despite previously maintaining its relationship with the I.N.D.I alliance during the Delhi and Haryana Assembly elections, AAP had already been shifting toward independent political positioning. Its decision to contest the Haryana and Delhi polls alone marked the beginning of a recalibration of its national strategy. The I.N.D.I alliance, a coalition formed to counter the BJP, is now seen as a temporary arrangement, with AAP distancing itself from the coalition after suffering defeats, particularly in Delhi, where they had previously dominated elections.

AAP had won over 90% of Delhi's seats in 2015 and 2020, but in the latest election, they could only secure 22 out of 70 seats, forcing a reassessment of their national strategy.

The party’s decision to go solo is not without reason. AAP has faced difficulties in balancing its relationship with Congress, particularly in Punjab, where the two parties are direct competitors. Punjab, currently governed by AAP, is scheduled for elections in 2027, and AAP is working to retain power there. The party is also looking to expand its influence across India, as evidenced by its performance in Gujarat, where it won a seat in a recent by-election. This victory, combined with the party’s previous results in Gujarat, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, has emboldened AAP to contest elections in states like Bihar independently.

AAP’s Plans for the Bihar Elections

With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching, AAP has announced that it will contest the elections independently, without any alliance with Congress or other partners. Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP convenor, clarified that the party’s decision to contest Bihar elections is a natural progression of its plans to expand across the country. Despite being part of the INDIA alliance for the 2024 general elections, AAP has now stated that it will not form alliances for state elections like those in Bihar, echoing its approach in recent by-polls, such as the Visavadar bypoll in Gujarat.

Bihar, known for its complex caste arithmetic and entrenched political leaderships, presents a challenging terrain for AAP. The state is currently dominated by two major alliances: the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal), and the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance). The presence of dominant local parties and caste-based voter blocs makes it difficult for new entrants like AAP to gain a foothold. However, AAP’s decision to contest in Bihar signals its intent to make inroads into the state’s political landscape, following the boost it received from its performances in other states.

Will AAP's Entry into Bihar Affect the Existing Parties?

While it is unlikely that AAP will emerge as a serious contender in the Bihar elections, it could still play a significant role in influencing the outcome. Sanjay Singh, AAP's MP, emphasized that the party is unlikely to win the elections in Bihar, but it could secure 4-6% of the vote share, which could impact the results in some constituencies. In the early stages, AAP might act more as a “vote-cutter,” diluting the support of other major parties, particularly within the INDIA alliance, which includes RJD, Congress, and other regional forces. This could impact the Mahagathbandhan more than the NDA, with AAP drawing support from voters dissatisfied with the current leadership.

Major political parties in I.N.D.I Alliance

The role of new political parties like AAP in Bihar is akin to the historical patterns seen with the disintegration of national coalitions in the past. For instance, the Janata Party formed in 1977 collapsed after its defeat in 1980, giving rise to several regional parties such as JD(U), Samajwadi Party, JD(S), and RJD. These regional players have since shaped the political dynamics of states like Bihar. AAP’s foray into Bihar politics could follow similar patterns of fragmentation, especially considering that the state’s political environment is already marked by complex alliances and volatile voter loyalties.

AAP's Role in Maintaining National Party Status

Another reason for AAP's decision to contest the Bihar elections is to maintain its national party status. According to Sanjay Singh, securing a certain percentage of the vote in Bihar would help the party maintain its national status, which requires parties to have significant presence across multiple states. Although this could be a contributing factor, Singh maintains that the party’s primary goal is not merely to preserve its national status but to expand its base and increase its influence across the country.

In conclusion, AAP’s decision to distance itself from the INDIA alliance and contest Bihar elections independently is a reflection of its shifting political approach, particularly after the setbacks in Delhi. While it is unlikely to secure a dominant position in Bihar’s politics, the party may still influence the outcome by playing the role of a spoiler, especially for the Mahagathbandhan. The coming months will reveal how AAP’s strategy unfolds and whether it can successfully navigate the complex electoral landscape of Bihar, a state where caste-based politics and entrenched alliances dominate. However, one thing remains clear: AAP’s decision to contest alone marks a significant step in its ambition to establish a national footprint.