Daily Mains Question - 10th June 2025
- TPP
- Jun 10
- 3 min read
Welcome to your daily Mains Model Answer — designed to bridge the gap between current affairs and conceptual clarity, just the way UPSC tests in GS Papers. Today’s answer focuses on how climate change is reshaping India’s monsoon rain patterns — a critical issue at the intersection of geography, agriculture, and environmental sustainability. Drawing from a recent tehsil-level study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), this topic offers fresh insights into regional disparities in rainfall, rising extreme weather events, and implications for food security and ecosystem stability.
With monsoon irregularities now increasingly linked to floods, droughts, and shifts in cropping cycles, UPSC may frame questions around climate variability, disaster preparedness, and regional planning. Use this answer to strengthen your preparation for GS Paper I (Indian Geography and Geophysical Phenomena) and GS Paper III (Climate Change, Environment and Agriculture).
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QUESTION
How has climate change influenced the monsoon rain pattern in India?
(15 Marks, 250 Words)
Answer: The Indian monsoon, primarily comprising the Southwest Monsoon (June–September) and the Northeast or Retreating Monsoon (October–December), is a crucial climate system governing the agricultural economy, ecosystems, and water resources of the country. The Southwest Monsoon contributes nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall, supporting the sowing of Kharif crops, while the Northeast Monsoon is vital for Rabi crops, particularly in peninsular India.
In recent years, due to climate change, monsoon patterns in India have become increasingly erratic, uneven, and extreme, leading to profound socio-economic and ecological implications.
Impact of Climate Change on Monsoon Rain Patterns
1. Shifting Rainfall Trends – Regional Contrasts
According to the study ‘Decoding India’s Changing Monsoon Patterns: A Tehsil-level Assessment’ by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW):
Southwest monsoon rainfall has increased in 55% of India’s 4,419 tehsils in the last decade.
Rainfall has decreased in 11% of tehsils, particularly in Assam, Meghalaya, Indo-Gangetic plains, and parts of northeast India.
Examples:
Traditionally drier areas like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan region, central Maharashtra, and parts of Tamil Nadu saw a >30% increase in rainfall over 1981–2011 baseline.
On the contrary, tehsils like Pachim Nalbari Circle, Boitamari Circle, and Barnagar Circle in Assam saw a 30% reduction from the Long Period Average (LPA).
2. Rise in Short-Duration, Intense Rainfall Events
Increased rainfall is largely driven by short, heavy spells rather than long-lasting rains.
Around 64% of tehsils experienced 1–15 more heavy rainfall days annually over the last 10 years.
This is associated with flash floods, such as in:
Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh (2023)
Bangalore (2022)
These “wet extremes” now account for a growing share of total seasonal rainfall, though their intensity has not shown a consistent trend.
3. Impact on Agriculture and Ecosystems
Rainfall decline in 11% of tehsils—many in Indo-Gangetic plains, northeast, and Himalayan regions—poses a major risk to:
Kharif crop production
Water availability
Fragile mountain ecosystems
These regions are climate-sensitive and agriculturally intensive, making them vulnerable to crop failure, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss.
4. Temporal Irregularity in Monsoon Distribution
Decrease in early monsoon rainfall (June–July) affects timely Kharif sowing.
On the other hand, 48% of tehsils saw an increase in October rainfall by more than 10%, suggesting delayed withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon.
This affects the timing and efficiency of Rabi crop sowing.
5. Northeast (Retreating) Monsoon Showing Regional Surges
Retreating monsoon (October–December) rainfall has seen a >10% rise in:
80% tehsils in Tamil Nadu
44% in Telangana
39% in Andhra Pradesh
Also increased in Odisha, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Goa.
This shift indicates changing wind and temperature patterns post-monsoon, likely influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions exacerbated by climate change.
Conclusion:
India’s monsoon system is undergoing profound changes due to climate change, characterized by:
Shifting geographies of rainfall
More intense and frequent rainfall events
Temporal distortions in seasonal rainfall
These changes are no longer abstract projections but observable at the tehsil level, as highlighted by high-resolution meteorological data (1982–2022). They threaten India’s agricultural resilience, water security, and ecological balance.
Addressing this calls for:
Climate-resilient cropping strategies
Early warning systems
Policy integration between agriculture, water, and climate adaptation
A scientific understanding of monsoon variability must now translate into localised action plans, particularly in vulnerable regions.
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